Tuesday, January 31, 2012

December Construction Spending Up From November

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during December 2011 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $816.4 billion, 1.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $804.0 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2010 estimate of $782.9 billion. The value of construction in 2011 was $787.4 billion, 2.0 percent below the $803.6 billion spent in 2010.

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $529.7 billion, 2.1 percent above the revised November estimate of $518.8 billion. Residential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $241.2 billion in December, 0.8 percent above the revised November estimate of $239.4 billion. Nonresidential construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $288.5 billion in December, 3.3 percent above the revised November estimate of $279.4 billion.

The value of private construction in 2011 was $504.1 billion, 0.7 percent above the $500.6 billion spent in 2010. Residential construction in 2011 was $236.2 billion, 1.1 percent below the 2010 figure of $238.8 billion and nonresidential construction was $268.0 billion, 2.4 percent above the $261.8 billion in 2010.

In December, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $286.6 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $285.3 billion. Educational construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $70.6 billion, 0.6 percent below the revised November estimate of $71.1 billion. Highway construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $84.5 billion, 1.8 percent above the revised November estimate of $82.9 billion. The value of public construction in 2011 was $283.3 billion, 6.5 percent below the $303.0 billion spent in 2010. Educational construction in 2011 was $70.9 billion, 5.3 percent below the 2010 figure of $74.9 billion and highway construction was $78.9 billion, 4.5 percent below the $82.5 billion in 2010.

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Monday, January 30, 2012

Case-Shiller Index Down Again In November

• Home prices in the U.S. expected to decline 3.6 percent into mid-2012, and then rebound 2.4 percent in second half 2012 through first half 2013 • Price declines and low mortgage rates have resulted in dramatic improvement in housing affordability • Ratio of monthly mortgage payment to median family income lowest on record; Monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home nearly 40 percent lower than at peak

Fiserv, Inc. today released an analysis of home price trends in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the Fiserv®Case-Shiller Indexes®. The indexes are owned and generated by Fiserv, a leading global provider of financial services technology solutions, and data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).

The double-dip in home prices that started in 2010 continued to take home prices lower this spring and summer. Single-family home prices dropped 5.9 percent in 2011 second quarter compared to a year ago, according to the national Fiserv Case-Shiller home price indexes. Prices fell in 340 out of 384 metro areas, with 302 metros hitting new home price lows. Fiserv projects that home prices across the U.S. will decline another 3.6 percent by the second quarter of 2012, before rising by 2.4 percent by the second quarter of 2013.

"Housing affordability has improved dramatically because of declines in both prices and mortgage interest rates," said David Stiff, chief economist at Fiserv. "The monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced single-family home is now $700, compared to $1,140 in 2006 — a decline of nearly 40 percent. Nationally, purchase mortgage payments now account for only 13 percent of monthly median family income, the lowest percentage on record (since 1971), and compared to 23 percent in the first quarter of 2006."

Elaborating on the reasons for continued weakness in the housing market, Stiff continued, "Although homes have become much less expensive, housing demand remains depressed with existing home sales back to 1998 levels, averaging 4.3 million units per year since June. Many households cannot finance first-time or trade-up home purchases to take advantage of lower home prices because of much stricter mortgage lending standards. But even households with access to mortgage credit are hesitant to buy homes while job growth is weak and consumer confidence is low."

Stiff pointed to several factors that can help the market find a bottom and begin a gradual and cautious recovery. "If economic growth picks up in the second half of 2011, then home prices should stabilize early next year. New housing construction is at an all-time low and inventories of foreclosed properties are starting to shrink. Lower levels of housing supply and more steady demand next year will reduce downward pressure on prices. As homebuyers become more confident, many who are sitting on the sidelines will begin to enter the market and prices will start to increase. But we should not expect a rapid rebound in home prices. Very large inventories of foreclosed properties must be liquidated and absorbed before the healthy functioning of housing markets is restored."

"Potential buyers must be convinced that the economic recovery is back on track and that the double-dip in home prices is nearly over before housing demand will begin to rise," Stiff concluded.

Other highlights from the latest Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes include:



      • Prices dropped by double-digits in 30 metro areas, while 25 metro areas had small price increases of 1 percent or more.

      • Between 2011 second quarter and 2012 second quarter, prices are projected to rise by double digits in only two metros (Madera-Chowchilla, Calif. and Carson City, Nev.) and decline by double digits in 16 metro areas (Naples-Marco Island, Fla.; Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.; Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, Fla.; Salinas, Calif.; Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.; Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla.; Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; Bethesda-Rockville-Frederick, MD; Merced, Calif.; Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich.; Jacksonville, Fla.; Ocean City, N.J.; Port St. Lucie, Fla.; Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.; Palm Coast, Fla.)

      • Projections for the following 12 months, i.e. the 2012 second quarter to 2013 second quarter period, illustrate why the housing market is poised to stabilize next year: home prices in 372 of the 384 markets are projected to rise in that time period, with only 12 markets expected to experience declines.

      • California and Florida have borne the brunt of the worst declines in home prices. Of the 33 markets where homes have lost at least 50 percent of their value since peak, 28 are in the Sunshine and Golden States.

      • In markets with the largest home price bubbles and crashes, improvements in housing affordability have been even larger. For example, the ratio of monthly mortgage payment to family income dropped from 32 percent (2006:Q1) to 11 percent in Las Vegas, from 42 percent (2007:Q1) to 19 percent in Miami, and from 59 percent (2007:Q2) to 27 percent in Los Angeles.




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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

December New Residential Home Sales Down From November

Sales of new single-family houses in December 2011 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 307,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 2.2 percent below the revised November rate of 314,000 and is 7.3 percent below the December 2010 estimate of 331,000.

The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2011 was $210,300; the average sales price was $266,000. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 157,000. This represents a supply of 6.1 months at the current sales rate.

An estimated 302,000 new homes were sold in 2011. This is 6.2 percent (±3.6%) below the 2010 figure of 323,000.

The Eckerman Group
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Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Hit All-Time Low

Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing mortgage rates easing to new all-time record lows for all products covered in the survey helping to keep homebuyer affordability high. The average for the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has been below 4.00 percent for six consecutive weeks.

News Facts

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.89 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 12, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.91 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.71 percent.

  • 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.16 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.23 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.08 percent.

  • 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.86 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.72 percent.

  • 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.76 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.23 percent.


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Friday, January 20, 2012

NAR: December Existing Home Sales Rose 5 Percent

Existing-home sales continued on an uptrend in December, rising for three consecutive months and remaining above a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The latest monthly data shows total existing-home sales rose 5.0 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in December from a downwardly revised 4.39 million in November, and are 3.6 percent higher than the 4.45 million-unit level in December 2010. The estimates are based on completed transactions from multiple listing services that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said these are early signs of what may be a sustained recovery. “The pattern of home sales in recent months demonstrates a market in recovery,” he said. “Record low mortgage interest rates, job growth and bargain home prices are giving more consumers the confidence they need to enter the market.”

For all of 2011, existing-home sales rose 1.7 percent to 4.26 million from 4.19 million in 2010.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to another record low of 3.96 percent in December from 3.99 percent in November; the rate was 4.71 percent in December 2010; recordkeeping began in 1971.

NAR President Moe Veissi, broker-owner of Veissi & Associates Inc., in Miami, said more buyers are expected to take advantage of market conditions this year. “The American dream of homeownership is alive and well. We have a large pent-up demand, and household formation is likely to return to normal as the job market steadily improves,” he said. “More buyers coming into the market mean additional benefits for the overall economy. When people buy homes, they stimulate a lot of related goods and services.”

Total housing inventory at the end of December dropped 9.2 percent to 2.38 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.2-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 7.2-month supply in November.

Available inventory has trended down since setting a record of 4.04 million in July 2007, and is at the lowest level since March 2005 when there were 2.30 million homes on the market.

“The inventory supply suggests many markets will see prices stabilize or grow moderately in the near future,” Yun said.

Foreclosures3 sold for an average discount of 22 percent in December, up from 20 percent a year ago, while short sales closed 13 percent below market value compared with a 16 percent discount in December 2010.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $164,500 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010. Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – accounted for 32 percent of sales in December (19 percent were foreclosures and 13 percent were short sales), up from 29 percent in November; they were 36 percent in December 2010.

All-cash sales accounted for 31 percent of purchases in December, up from 28 percent in November and 29 percent in December 2010. Investors account for the bulk of cash transactions.

Investors purchased 21 percent of homes in December, up from 19 percent in November and 20 percent in December 2010. First-time buyers fell to 31 percent of transactions in December from 35 percent in November; they were 33 percent in December 2010.

Contract failures were reported by 33 percent of NAR members in December, unchanged from November; they were 9 percent in December 2010. Although closed sales are holding up better than this finding would suggest, contract cancellations are caused largely by declined mortgage applications and failures in loan underwriting from appraised values coming in below the negotiated price.

Single-family home sales increased 4.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.11 million in December from 3.93 million in November, and are 4.3 percent higher than the 3.94 million-unit pace a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $165,100 in December, which is 2.5 percent below December 2010.

Existing condominium and co-op sales rose 8.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 500,000 in December from 460,000 in November but are 2.0 percent below the 510,000-unit level in December 2010. The median existing condo price was $160,000 in December, down 3.0 percent from a year ago.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast jumped 10.7 percent to an annual pace of 620,000 in December and are 3.3 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $231,300, which is 2.7 percent below December 2010.

Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 8.3 percent in December to a level of 1.04 million and are 9.5 percent above December 2010. The median price in the Midwest was $129,100, down 7.9 percent from a year ago.

In the South, existing-home sales increased 2.9 percent to an annual level of 1.76 million in December and are 3.5 percent above a year ago. The median price in the South was $146,900, down 1.1 percent from December 2010.

Existing-home sales in the West rose 2.6 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in December but are 0.8 percent below December 2010. The median price in the West was $205,200, up 0.3 percent from a year ago.

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Thursday, January 19, 2012

Freddie Mac: 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Edges Down

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 19, 2012 -- Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average mortgage rates changing little amid mixed economic data. Regardless, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edged down slightly to 3.88 percent to a new all-time record low marking the seventh consecutive week below 4.00 percent.

News Facts
30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.88 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 19, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.89 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.74 percent.
15-year FRM this week averaged 3.17 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.16 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.05 percent.
5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.82 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, matching last week when it averaged 2.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.69 percent.
1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.74 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.76 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.25 percent.

Average commitment rates should be reported along with average fees and points to reflect the total upfront cost of obtaining the mortgage. Visit the following links for Regional and National Mortgage Rate Details and Definitions. Borrowers may still pay closing costs which are not included in the survey.

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Wednesday, January 18, 2012

December Housing Starts Down From November; Up From A Year Earlier

Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000. This is 4.1 percent  below the revised November estimate of 685,000, but is 24.9 percent above the December 2010 rate of 526,000.

Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 470,000; this is 4.4 percent above the revised November figure of 450,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 164,000.

An estimated 606,900 housing units were started in 2011. This is 3.4 percent above the 2010 figure of 586,900.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000. This is 0.1 percent below the revised November rate of 680,000, but is 7.8 percent above the December 2010 estimate of 630,000.

Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 444,000; this is 1.8 percent above the revised November figure of 436,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 209,000 in December.

An estimated 611,900 housing units were authorized by building permits in 2011. This is 1.2 percent above the 2010 figureof 604,600.

Privately-owned housing completions in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 605,000. This is 9.2 percent above the revised November estimate of 554,000 and is 7.1 percent above the December 2010 rate of 565,000.

Single-family housing completions in December were at a rate of 448,000; this is 0.9 percent  below the revised November rate of 452,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 147,000.

An estimated 583,900 housing units were completed in 2011. This is 10.4 percent below the 2010 figure of 651,700.

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Mortgage Applications Surge 23%


Record-low mortgage rates sparked a wave in mortgage applications for home purchase and refinancings last week, increasing more than 20 percent in a week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports.




For the week ending Jan. 13, mortgage applications for refinancing applications jumped 26.4 percent while home purchase applications, a future gauge for home buying, increased 10.3 percent.

"With mortgage rates reaching new lows, refinance volume jumped," Michael Fratantoni, MBA's vice president of research and economics, said in a statement. "Purchase activity also increased as buyers returned to the market after the holiday season."

Freddie Mac reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged a record low of 3.89 percent for the week ending Jan. 12. For six consecutive weeks, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages -- the most popular choice among home buyers -- has averaged below 4 percent.

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Friday, January 13, 2012

Foreclosure filings posted a 33 percent drop in 2011, falling to their lowest levels since 2007, RealtyTrac reports.

According to the National Association of Realtors, "During 2011, one in every 69 homes received a foreclosure filing and 804,000 homes were repossessed — compared to 1.05 million homes that were repossessed during the foreclosure crisis peak in 2010, according to RealtyTrac.

"Foreclosures have plagued many communities, putting downward pressure on overall home prices. In the past five years, more than 4 million homes have been lost to foreclosure.

"So is the worst finally over for the housing market?

"Not yet, analysts say. Banks took more time to process foreclosures last year, which explains some of the declines, housing analysts note. In fact, the average process time for a foreclosure rose to 348 days in the fourth quarter, up from 305 days one year prior.

"RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore says that while he expects foreclosures to increase in 2012, he also expects foreclosures to  stay well below the 2010 peak. Refinancing programs, such as the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program, are helping more borrowers lower their payments and avoid foreclosure, Moore says.

"Still, the biggest problems with foreclosures remains centered in certain areas, particularly where investors helped drive up home prices during the housing boom. For example, Nevada remains the No. 1 foreclosure hot-spot, in which one out of every 16 households received some kind of default notice during 2011. Arizona and California also are continuing to face some of the highest foreclosure rates in the country too, according to RealtyTrac data."

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